Machine Learning × Revenue Management
Predicting Hotel Cancellations
Hotels lose revenue to last-minute cancellations, but overbooking blind gets guests walked. Predict each reservation, then price the two errors against each other.
$10,620
Additional modelled profit from moving the decision threshold to 0.55. A simulated result on a public dataset, not realised revenue.
Python · XGBoost · SMOTE · Poisson simulation